As stocks look ready to try again for a post-Powell pick-me-up, caution is in the air, with preaching by some big banks.
No doubt some may be looking even closer down the road, when bigger institutional traders may potentially return from vacations to size up the market after that hawkish Fed blow.
Our call of the day says as bulls and bears battle it out, the best path forward for investors is to stop fighting the Fed, stop fighting the trends and let the markets lead. It comes from Mark Ritchie II, chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors and a son of the legendary investor by the same name.
In an interview with Real Vision that published Monday, Ritchie touches on the return of those big players, saying “if the institutions really start showing up and selling en masse,” markets are in for a new low or a retest.
As a contrarian, he says the best setup for him would see markets continue to pull back, retest the lows “and everybody gets end-of-the world bearish.” But he wants investors to keep an open mind here, as we could also see a powerful rally off the lows, or a secular longer range where markets don’t see new highs.
That’s why it’s important to lead the market, he says.
Everybody “loves to look at, well, what was the hot stock of the last time, or what’s been beaten down the most. And I’m saying you want to look the other way. The market is smarter than all of us…let the market tell you where the strength is, and see if that holds up,” said Ritchie.
That means for investors who have gotten long in some areas and find those positions are working, “you potentially try and stick with them.”
“So even if this market pulls back, and even if we make new lows, you want to be looking at…what areas buck that pull of the market,” he says. Right now, he’s focused on biotech, some semiconductors and solar, in the green energy space. He said those sectors should interest anyone looking to put capital to work on the view markets might be bottoming or in a bottoming process.
If these groups “just roll over and come crashing back down, that would tell me there’s no leadership in this market,” he said. “Let’s say it’s the green energy area. If it only pulls back moderately, the market goes to new lows, and it just incrementally makes lower highs, that’s bullish.”
Ritchie says leadership remains his biggest concern for markets. “The leadership goes, get out of dodge. I’m far more interested now than I even was saying in March, because it looks like we had a little bit of leadership.”
He’s also monitoring a potential “dollar wrecking ball,” as further large moves in the greenback — up 13% year to date — “will probably be coincident with moves lower in equities,” and “potentially breaking things around the world.”
Ritchie’s full interview can be found here.
The markets
Stock futures ES00
YM00
NQ00
are rising, as the bond BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
selloff gets a breather and the dollar DXY
eases slightly. Crude prices CL
BRN00
are dropping, while bitcoin BTCUSD
is holding just above $20,000.
The buzz
Twitter TWTR
is down and Tesla stock TSLA
is up in premarket after the EV maker’s CEO Elon Musk sent a letter to the social-media company, adding more reasons as to why he wants to back out of his $44 billion deal.
Baidu BIDU
stock is up on bullish earnings and revenue from the Chinese search engine.
Big Lots BIG
stock is rising after a smaller-than-expected second-quarter loss.
Advanced Micro Devices AMD
has launched the fastest gaming card in the world.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he was happy to see the market reaction to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. “People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%.”
Two Fed speakers are on tap for Tuesday — Richmond President Tom Barkins at 8 am, and New York President John Williams at 11 am In between, we’ll get the S&P Case-Shiller US home price index, consumer confidence and job openings.
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The chart
Tesla stock could be poised for a “significantly lower price” if it breaks the $280 region and critical head-and-shoulder pattern neckline, says Michael Kramer, the founder of Mott Capital Management.
Here’s his chart, and full blog post.
Mott Capital
The tickers
These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 am Eastern.
Ticker |
Security name |
BBBY |
Bed Bath & Beyond |
TSLA |
Tesla |
GME |
GameStop |
AMC |
AMC Entertainment |
APE |
AMC Entertainment preferred shares |
AVCT |
American Virtual Cloud Technologies |
BBY |
Best Buy |
AAPL |
Apple |
NIO |
NIO |
TWTR |
|
Random readings
Only diamond-encrusted sneakers will do for Serena Williams’ US Open farewell
38 miles later, Nebraska man sets world record in pumpkin paddling
Drink tea, live longer.
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